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Natural Gas Weekly Update

for week ending April 1, 2020   |  Release date:  April 2, 2020   |  Next release:  April 9, 2020   |   Previous weeks


JUMP TO: In The News | Overview | Prices/Supply/Demand | Storage

In the News:

With warm weather, U.S. residential and commercial natural gas consumption down in 2020

U.S. residential and commercial natural gas consumption from January–March 2020 averaged about 35.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a decrease of 18% (7.8 Bcf/d), from January–March 2019 and was 10% (4.2 Bcf/d) lower than the 10-year (2010–2019) average, according to IHS Markit estimates for 2020 and EIA historical data. This decrease was driven by . Total natural gas customer-weighted heating degree days (HDDs) for January–March 2020 were 13% lower than the 30-year (1981–2010) average. The primary use of natural gas by residential and commercial customers during the winter is space heating, and fewer HDDs indicate less need for heating.

January 2020, in particular, was the on record in the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. January 2020 HDDs were 17% lower than the 30-year average. According to EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly, January 2020 U.S. natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors averaged 42.3 Bcf/d. This level was 6.4 Bcf/d, or about 13%, lower than the January 2019 average, and 4.0 Bcf/d, or about 9%, lower than the 10-year average for January. January 2020 had the lowest January consumption by the residential and commercial sectors since January 2012.

mild weather continued through the rest of the winter. hdds in february and march totaled about 7% and 15% lower than their 30-year averages, respectively. although eia does not yet have data for these months, according to ihs markit estimates and eia historical data, u.s. residential and commercial natural gas consumption in february and march averaged 10% (4.4 bcf/d) and 25% (9.1 bcf/d) lower than their respective 2019 averages and 2% (0.8 bcf/d) and 14% (4.2 bcf/d) lower than their respective 2010–2019 averages.

Overview:

(For the week ending Wednesday, April 1, 2020)

  • Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, March 25 to Wednesday, April 1). The Henry Hub spot price fell from $1.71 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.60/MMBtu yesterday.
  • At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the April 2020 contract expired Friday at $1.634/MMBtu, down 3¢/MMBtu from last Wednesday. The May 2020 contract price decreased to $1.587/MMBtu, down 13¢/MMBtu from last Wednesday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging May 2020 through April 2021 futures contracts declined 2¢/MMBtu to $2.214/MMBtu.
  • The net withdrawal from working gas totaled 19 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending March 27. Working natural gas stocks total 1,986 Bcf, which is 77% more than the year-ago level and 17% more than the five-year (2015–19) average for this week.
  • The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 10¢/MMBtu, averaging $2.50/MMBtu for the week ending April 1. The price of natural gasoline fell by 2%. The prices of propane, ethane, isobutane, and butane, rose by 1%, 6%, 11%, and 18%, respectively.
  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, March 24, the natural gas rig count decreased by 4 to 102. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 40 to 624. The total rig count decreased by 44, and it now stands at 728.

more summary data

Prices/Supply/Demand:

Prices fall across the Lower 48 states with mixed temperatures红包扫雷软件最新版. This report week (Wednesday, March 25 to Wednesday, April 1), the Henry Hub spot price fell 11¢ from a high of $1.71/MMBtu last Wednesday to a low of $1.60/MMBtu yesterday. varied across the country, resulting in mixed heating and cooling demand. Temperatures were cooler than normal west of the Rocky Mountains and warmer than normal east, especially in the Southeast. At the Chicago Citygate, the price decreased 2¢ from $1.53/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu yesterday.

California prices are down. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 12¢, down from a high of $2.39/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.27/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California红包扫雷软件最新版 decreased 40¢ from a high of $1.91/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in California were generally cooler than normal, averaging 50 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit (° F).

Northeast prices are down. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went down 6¢ from $1.55/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.49/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price remained unchanged week over week at $1.38/MMBtu.

the tennessee zone 4 marcellus spot price decreased 6¢ from $1.32/mmbtu last wednesday to $1.26/mmbtu yesterday. the price at dominion south in southwest pennsylvania fell 4¢ from $1.31/mmbtu last wednesday to $1.27/mmbtu yesterday.

Permian Basin price discount to the Henry Hub remains unchanged红包扫雷软件最新版. The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, averaged a high of $0.29/MMBtu last Wednesday, $1.42/MMBtu lower than the Henry Hub price. Yesterday, the price at the Waha Hub averaged a low of $0.18/MMBtu, $1.42/MMBtu lower than the Henry Hub price. The Waha price has remained lower than $1/MMBtu since February 6.

Supply falls红包扫雷软件最新版. According to data from IHS Markit, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production remained unchanged week over week. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 14% from last week, driven by decreased imports into the Northeast at the Waddington border crossing in upstate New York.

Demand is down, driven by declines in power generation and building consumption. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 7% compared with the previous report week, according to data from IHS Markit. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 7% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 10%. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 4% week over week. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 2%.

U.S. LNG exports increase week over week红包扫雷软件最新版. Nineteen LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass, three each from Corpus Christi and Freeport, and two each from Cove Point and Cameron) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 70 Bcf departed the United States between March 26 and April 1, 2020, according to shipping data provided by .

Storage:

the net withdrawal from storage totaled 19 bcf for the week ending march 27, compared with the five-year (2015–19) average net withdrawal of 19 bcf and last year's net injection of 6 bcf during the same week. working natural gas stocks totaled 1,986 bcf, which is 292 bcf more than the five-year average and 863 bcf more than last year at this time.

According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from a net withdrawal of 10 Bcf to 35 Bcf, with a median estimate of 26 Bcf.

the average rate of withdrawal from storage is 13% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (november through march). if the rate of withdrawal from storage matched the five-year average of 1.4 bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 1,989 bcf on march 31, which is 292 bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,697 bcf for that time of year.

More storage data and analysis can be found on the Natural Gas Storage Dashboard红包扫雷软件最新版 and the .

see also:



Natural gas spot prices
Spot Prices ($/MMBtu)
Thu,
26-Mar
Fri,
27-Mar
Mon,
30-Mar
Tue,
31-Mar
Wed,
01-Apr
Henry Hub 1.65 1.63 1.66 1.69 1.60
New York 1.28 1.13 1.44 1.60 1.38
Chicago 1.48 1.40 1.45 1.58 1.51
Cal. Comp. Avg.* 1.82 1.67 1.71 1.71 1.74
Futures ($/MMBtu)
April Contract 1.637 1.634 Expired Expired Expired
May Contract 1.689 1.671 1.690 1.640 1.587
June Contract 1.802 1.775 1.794 1.756 1.712
*Avg. of NGI's reported prices for: Malin, PG&E Citygate, and Southern California Border Avg.
Source: NGI's Daily Gas Price Index
Natural gas futures prices
Natural gas liquids spot prices


U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (3/26/20 - 4/1/20)
Average daily values (Bcf/d):
this week
last week
last year
Marketed production
106.1
106.4
102.8
Dry production
93.7
93.8
91.1
Net Canada imports
3.7
4.3
4.7
LNG pipeline deliveries
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total supply
97.5
98.2
95.9

Source: IHS Markit
Note: LNG pipeline deliveries represent natural gas sendout from LNG import terminals.

U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas Week: (3/26/20 - 4/1/20)
Average daily values (Bcf/d):
this week
last week
last year
U.S. consumption
71.9
77.3
77.6
    Power
26.1
27.9
24.3
    Industrial
22.2
23.0
23.6
    Residential/commercial
23.6
26.3
29.7
Mexico exports
5.5
5.6
4.9
Pipeline fuel use/losses
6.6
6.8
6.7
LNG pipeline receipts
9.6
9.2
4.0
Total demand
93.5
98.8
93.2

Source: IHS Markit
Note: LNG pipeline receipts represent pipeline deliveries to LNG export terminals.

Natural gas supply


Weekly natural gas rig count and average Henry Hub
Rigs
Tue, March 24, 2020
Change from
 
last week
last year
Oil rigs
624
-6.0%
-23.5%
Natural gas rigs
102
-3.8%
-46.3%
Note: Excludes any miscellaneous rigs
Rig numbers by type
Tue, March 24, 2020
Change from
 
last week
last year
Vertical
28
3.7%
-45.1%
Horizontal
653
-6.2%
-26.7%
Directional
47
-4.1%
-26.6%
Source: Baker Hughes Inc.


Working gas in underground storage
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Region
2020-03-27
2020-03-20
change
East
382
398
-16
Midwest
476
492
-16
Mountain
 92
 92
0
Pacific
197
194
3
South Central
840
829
11
Total
1,986
2,005
-19
Source: Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Working gas in underground storage
Historical comparisons
Year ago
(3/27/19)
5-year average
(2015-2019)
Region
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
East
214
78.5
283
35.0
Midwest
243
95.9
363
31.1
Mountain
63
46.0
111
-17.1
Pacific
110
79.1
204
-3.4
South Central
492
70.7
733
14.6
Total
1,123
76.8
1,694
17.2
Source: Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report


Temperature – heating & cooling degree days (week ending Mar 26)
 
HDD deviation from:
 
CDD deviation from:
Region
HDD Current
normal
last year
CDD Current
normal
last year
New England
175
-10
-16
0
0
0
Middle Atlantic
152
-17
-28
0
0
0
E N Central
177
0
-3
0
0
0
W N Central
176
1
28
0
-1
0
South Atlantic
69
-28
-38
28
16
19
E S Central
58
-33
-39
9
4
9
W S Central
33
-19
-6
33
20
19
Mountain
154
7
30
0
-3
-2
Pacific
118
34
28
0
-1
0
United States
131
-3
-2
9
4
6
Note: HDD = heating degree day; CDD = cooling degree day

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

average temperature (°f)

7-day mean ending mar 26, 2020

Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Mar 26, 2020

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

红包扫雷软件最新版deviation between average and normal (°f)

7-day mean ending mar 26, 2020

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Mar 26, 2020

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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